- WTI is up 22c to $41.67/Bbl, and Brent is up 16c to $43.96/Bbl
- WTI has traded in a narrow range, between $41/Bbl and $42/Bbl this morning
- The IEA casts doubt on the impact of a vaccine before 2H2021, revising its demand forecasts downward
- OPEC+ mulls whether to delay its January output hike as demand uncertainty continues to cloud global markets
- IEA trims its near-term demand forecast as COVID-19 cases pile upin the United States and Europe
- The agency revised their previous estimates downward by 0.4 MMBbl/d in 3Q2020, 1.2 MMBbl/d in 4Q2020, and 0.7 MMBbl/d in 1Q2021
- Global refining capacity has now fallen by 1.7 MMBbl/d, however significant structural overcapacity remains as more than 20 MMBbl/d of distillation capacity remains idle, according to the IEA
- The IEA also made a note regarding the recent vaccine news, saying, "However, it is far too early to know how and when vaccines will allow normal life to resume. For now, our forecasts do not anticipate a significant impact in the first half of 2021."
- OPEC+ in talks to delay output hike by three to six months (Bloomberg)
- The idea of delaying the hike in production has begun to gain traction among members of the cartel with Russia, and the cartel's de-facto leader, Saudi Arabia, leading the way
- One anonymous delegate said that they do not expect the vaccine to have an immediate effect on crude demand. Furthermore, the group has additional challenges as Libya returns production, and Iran is expected to return production in 2021 (An Iranian official said on Wednesday that Tehran exported up to 700 MBbl/d of crude since March - Reuters)
- EIA weekly data is due at 9:30 am CST
- S. Crude Inventories: -872 MBbls (Avg. Bloomberg surveys)
- S. Gasoline Inventories: + 202 MBbls
- S. Distillate Inventories: — 1,616 MBbls
- S. Refinery Utilization: + 0.59% change