- Brent futures slid below $79/Bbl Friday morning and are heading for a fourth straight weekly decline
- A sharp rise in Covid cases throughout Europe is renewing the prospect for lockdowns
- Austria has already instituted new restrictions, and Germany said it couldn’t rule out a lockdown (Bloomberg)
- President Biden’s threat to tap the U.S. SPR and even coordinate with other nations to do the same has already had an immediate effect on the price, despite no real action
- Goldman Sachs estimates that the U.S. may release about half of the 50-60 MMBbl anticipated, although that volume may provide only short-term relief (BBG)
- WTI’s premium to Middle Eastern Dubai crude has narrowed on a potential SPR release. The WTI-Dubai oil spread is now at $1.40/Bbl, versus $3/Bbl only two weeks ago
- OPEC+ spare capacity may be used up in the next 12 months if demand returns to 2019 levels, according to Vortexa analyst David Wech
- “At best,” current spare capacity is 3 MMBbl/d with as much as 2 MMBbl/d in Saudi Arabia and the rest in Russia and the UAE
- AEGIS notes that two African nations have had trouble producing to their allotted quota, and this is likely to continue
