- Libya’s production had dipped to averaging less than 0.4 MMBbl/d recently, down from its average 1.1 MMBbl/d in 2021, says its national oil company
- Most recently, force majeure was declared at the first- and third-largest export terminals, due to a political crisis that has escalated (Bloomberg)
- AEGIS notes Libya’s production is often at risk, due to unrest in the country. The Libya outage reduces supply when the globe is already undersupplied, and it increases the bid interest for near-term crude
- Norway’s upcoming labor strike at oil facilities may temporarily remove 50 MBbl/d of supply (Reuters). The amount of crude may seem immaterial to the global supply-demand balance, but the location in the North Sea has influence over Brent assessed prices.
- The US dollar’s value is back near its recent highs, and it is likely limiting oil prices from being as high as they could be
- The DXY index has rallied this week back to near 105.
- Except in the last two months, the dollar has not been so strong, versus a basket of major currencies, since late 2002. A strong dollar makes oil more expensive for non-dollar buyers of oil, so an expensive dollar typically restricts the dollar price of oil.
- Energy executives expect $108/Bbl WTI price by the end of 2022, per a Dallas Fed survey released last week
- The survey was done during June 8-16, when December 2022 futures traded at an average of near – you guessed it – $108. Futures for December have since slipped to near $98
- The “special questions” are often the most interesting part of the survey. This edition asked how long supply-chain and labor issues may persist. See the whole report here: Dallas Fed Energy Survey