Latest Insight
Last Look - Oil finishes back above $90 as supply concerns counter strong dollar
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California LCFS |
Oregon LCFS |
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Price March 3rd, 2023 |
$ 65.00 |
$ 122.00 |
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Average Weekly Price Feb. 27th - Mar. 3rd, 2023 |
$ 65.80 |
$ 122.20 |
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Average Monthly Price March 2023 |
$ 64.86 |
$ 122.00 |
The LCFS market retreated as the market reaction to the California Air Resource Board workshop was deemed overdone to the upside as the market remained marred by structural oversupply and record credit inventories. Prompt LCFS prices shed $4.7/t to average $65.80/t week-over-week, while the market is likely to trade downward in small steps toward the low $60s/t. The forward structure flattened for the first half the year, with a narrower contango emerging for Q3 and Q4
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D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
D6 |
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Price March 3rd, 2023 |
$ 2.15 |
$ 1.83 |
$ 1.60 |
$ 1.57 |
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Average Weekly Price Feb. 27th - Mar. 3rd, 2023 |
$ 2.10 |
$ 1.78 |
$ 1.60 |
$ 1.57 |
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Average Monthly Price March 2023 |
$ 2.11 |
$ 1.78 |
$ 1.59 |
$ 1.57 |
D4 RINs corrected downward as comments from the advanced biofuels industry to the EPA to lift advanced mandates no longer dominated headlines, prompting a lack of refiner buying. Robust January D4 RIN production and the introduction of two new SREs, one for 2022 and one for 2023, also proved bearish to the overall marketplace.
Robust January D4 RIN production and the introduction of two new Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) petitions, one for 2022 and one for 2023, limited gains.
The chance of a pivot in the EPA's approach to SREs continued to provide underlying bearish sentiment and D6 RINs tracked lower as any move in this direction would have an outsized impact on the D6 category. D3 RINs posted a modest recovery as the market was deemed oversold after biogas came under fire in the latest CARB workshop.
Questions? Contact our team for more information: environmental@aegis-hedging.com