For an explanation of the charts and figures below, please see: Natural Gas Supply-Demand Explainer
This post was updated on 2/2/2023
This week's storage report was the largest of the season so far
The most recent storage injection was -221 Bcf, or -31.5 Bcf/d, while the average temperature for the continental US in the corresponding week was 35° F. This week's storage withdrawal was 115 Bcf larger than the five-year average withdrawal for this time of year. This withdrawal was the largest of the past five years for the corresponding week.
The supply-and-demand balance is trending looser
The weather adjusted supply-and-demand balance indicates that the market is about 4 Bcf/d undersupplied, a much tighter level than last week. This week's withdrawal was the first in several months to be tighter than the five-year average.
Our projection for the amount of gas in storage at the end of winter has moved higher to 1.53 Tcf
The deficit to the five-year average has expanded this week to its current level of -208 Bcf below the five-year average. Although warm weather over the next few storage report weeks should lead the deficit to contract again.
NYMEX Henry Hub prompt contract and strips: