For an explanation of the charts and figures below, please see: Natural Gas Supply-Demand Explainer
This post was updated on 11/23/2022
This week's storage report marks the beginning of the winter withdrawal season
The most recent storage injection was -80 Bcf, or -11.4 Bcf/d, while the average temperature for the continental US in the corresponding week was 44° F. This week's storage withdrawal was 37 Bcf larger than the five-year average withdrawal for this time of year.
The supply-and-demand balance is trending looser
The weather adjusted supply-and-demand balance indicates that the market is about 3 Bcf/d oversupplied, a looser level than last week. This week's withdrawal continues the trend of looseness in the market, on a weather-adjusted basis.
Our projection for the amount of gas in storage at the end of winter has moved lower to 1.46 Tcf
The deficit to the five-year average has been eroded over the past two months to its current level of -39. This rapid increase in storage should keep fears of a winter supply shortage at bay, although the deficit did expand this week.
NYMEX Henry Hub prompt contract and strips: