March 15, 2019

By March 16, 2019First Look

March 15

Crude Oil:

  • WTI is down 48c to $58.13/Bbl, and Brent is down 57c to $66.66/Bbl
  • The IEA says the oil market will flip into a modest deficit from the second quarter of this year (Reuters)
    • First quarter this year could show a modest surplus before flipping to about a 0.5 MMBbl/d deficit
    • The agency also said that OPEC has the ability to react in case of possible supply disruptions
  • US and Chinese representatives have yet to reach a trade deal as the major issues still remain unresolved
    • A meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping was thought to happened at the end of this month but now looks like it won’t be until later in April (Argus)
  • Venezuela’s political opposition is proposing a comprehensive oil reform that would allow foreign investors to own up to 100% of oil asset (Argus)
    • The proposal mimics Mexico’s 2014 oil reform
    • The re-opening of Venezuela’s oil industry is unlikely before 2024-25
  • OPEC further reduced its production in February by 221 MBbl/d, according to the group’s Monthly Oil Market Report
    • Venezuela accounted for the largest drop from the group, falling 142 MBbl/d to 1.008 MMBbl/d in February

Natural Gas:

  • Natural gas is down 3.8c to $2.817/MMBtu
  • Weather models show a slightly warmer Central US and a cooler Eastern US in the 11-15 day outlook
    • Overnight demand fell 0.2 HDDs (CWG)
  • US natural gas in storage fell by 204 Bcf last week to 1.186 Tcf (EIA)
    • The decrease was smaller than the anticipated withdrawal of 208 Bcf
    • Stocks are 359 Bcf below last year’s total storage of 1.545 Tcf
  • Venture Global LNG is interested in doubling the capacity of its US export business from the current 30 million mt/year across two planned Louisiana terminals to 60 million mt/year (Platts)
    • Company said customer demand is the driver behind the talks of a possible expansion
    • Venture Global has been the most effective among the second wave of LNG projects to sign long term offtake contracts