Access

Protecting your
information

Executive Summary of our Cybersecurity posture.

Learn More

© 2019 AEGIS Energy Risk, LLC. All rights reserved.

You do not have access to the industry's first bilateral hedge Marketplace just yet.

Please contact us to

Get Started

or

Learn more

You do not have access to the industry’s leading hedge management platform just yet.

Please contact us to

Get Started

or

Learn more
First Look

October 10, 2019

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
By October 10, 2019 No Comments
  • WTI is up 54c to $53.13/Bbl, and Brent is up 55c to $58.87/Bbl
  • Crude stocks in the US rose more than expected last week amid a rise in production and a drop in refinery runs, according to the EIA
    • Inventories rose by 2.9 MMBbl to 425.6 MMBbl, marking the fourth straight week of builds
    • Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by 941 MBbl to 41.7 MMBbl
    • WTI price action following the government’s data release on Wednesday was rather muted as large product stock withdraws offset the crude build
  • The long-awaited Saudi Aramco IPO is finally set to hit the market (Bloomberg)
    • The Saudi government is set to make a formal announcement in late October
    • The crown prince has always insisted that Aramco is worth more than $2 trillion
    • AEGIS notes targeting a stratospheric valuation means its in the Saudis best interest to try and keep oil prices from getting too low
      • They can accomplish this by restricting supply when price moves too far down
  • OPEC’s Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said at the Oil & Money conference in London that OPEC+ will do “Whatever it takes” to prevent another oil slump as the global economy weakens
    • Barkindo said the US-China trade dispute has “cast a shadow” over oil demand and a failure to reach a deal would be “catastrophic” for the market
    • AEGIS notes futures were down in afterhours trading on Wednesday as it was reported that deputy-level talks between the US and China made no progress. Prices have recovered as of this morning.
  • Natural gas is up 0.7c to $2.241/MMBtu
  • Analysts estimate natural gas storage to increase by 97 Bcf for the week ending October 4
    • Forecasts ranged from 82 Bcf to 111 Bcf
    • The corresponding build last year was 91 Bcf
  • Flows from the United States, on the Sur de Texas (SdT), to Mexico have crept up to 0.75 Bcf/d, setting a new record (Platts)
    • Flows could see a significant boost when the Tula-Villa de Reyes and Tuxpan-Tula extensions of the SdT come into service in 2H2019 and 2H2020, respectively
    • The pipelines can bring gas from the United States down into Southern Central Mexico, thus increasing demand and flows on the SdT
  • FERC has approved the change of waterbody crossing for the 1.4 Bcf/d Midship pipeline
    • This is a positive step towards Cheniere’s anticipated 4Q2019 start date for the pipeline
    • Once complete, the pipeline will be able to source SCOOP/STACK gas and deliver it towards northern Louisiana for further transportation to the Gulf