Demand is under pressure and will be the primary factor behind a lasting oil-price recovery. Below are some of statistics we are watching to gauge the domestic impact of COVID-19.
- Gasoline demand has come off lows of 5.8 MMBbl/d, up by 1.7 MMBbl/d over the past four weeks as social distancing restrictions loosen and stay-at-home orders are lifted.
- Refinery demand has taken a major hit since late March. Domestic refiners are running about 4 MMBbl/d less crude than what is typical for this time of year. The increase in gasoline demand has not translated into increased refinery inputs as gasoline storage levels still sit well above levels expected during an average summer season.
- Dry gas production has declined sharply in the basins whose well economics rely heavily on the price of crude oil.
- Regionally, Texas, New Mexico, and the Bakken have all decreased gas production as producers start shut-ins and reduce activity.