- Oil edges lower ahead of the Fed decision
- October ’23 WTI lost $1 this morning to trade around $90.20/Bbl
- The market awaits the Fed's decision today, where the Fed is expected to pause rate hikes following slower inflation but leave the door open for more hikes as early as November
- Britain's inflation rate unexpectedly dropped to an 18-month low, cutting the odds of a BOE rate hike tomorrow
- The US dollar and equities traded lower this morning
- Despite expectations of export cuts tapering by 0.2 MMBbl/s, Russian crude exports hit a three-month high last week, rising 0.465 MMBbl/d in the four weeks to Sept. 17
- Goldman sees oil revisiting $100 on OPEC+ cuts, record demand (Bloomberg)
- Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month forecast for Brent to $100/Bbl, up from $93 previously, on record demand and tight OPEC+ supply, but sees oil's 30% rally since June largely over
- Goldman cited brighter US and China demand outlooks and rapidly declining inventories as supporting oil's rally, with major economies still seen on track for a soft-landing
- The bank added, “OPEC will sustain Brent between $80-$105 in 2024 by leveraging Asia-centric demand, though unlikely to push prices to extreme levels that would destroy long-term residual demand" in a report dated Sept 20
- Goldman estimates a 2 MMBbl/d market deficit this quarter and 1.1 MMBbl/d shortfall in Q4 2023, with global oil consumption at record levels
- Russia mulls massive hike in oil export duties to ease domestic shortages (Bloomberg, Reuters)
- Russia is considering hiking export duties on oil products to $250/ton from October 1 to June 2024 to address domestic fuel shortages
- Current light and middle distillate duties are $6.4/ton, while crude and heavy product duties are $21.4/ton
- If the hike in duty prices is approved, companies complying with quotas to supply the domestic market would get partial or full reimbursement of new duties
- However, Gazprom Neft head Alexander Dyukov said OPEC+ can still increase supply if a global oil shortage emerges, despite export duties