Renewable Diesel Margins Halt Decline on RIN Strength
US Gulf coast RD margins halted six consecutive weeks of declines as RIN strength and rising diesel prices offset rising feedstock prices.
UCO remained the highest returning feedstock, averaging a return of $1.87/gallon, even as spot UCO prices in the US Gulf coast rallied 3.1c/lb, or 5.2%, week-over-week.
BFT margins rose $0.09/gallon, or 5.3%, week-over-week to average $1.75/gallon. Spot BFT prices climbed 1.83c/lb, or 3.0%, to 62.08/lb on average.
DCO margins posted the largest gains on the week, firming $0.10/gallon, or 7.3%, to average $1.45/gallon. Margins started the week at $1.54/gallon, the highest level in nearly a month. Spot DCO prices rose 2.2c/lb, or 3.4%, to an average of 67c/lb.
The SBO market continued to rally on bullish soybean acreage data. Spot SBO reached as high as 73.28c/lb, gaining 4.2c/lb, or 6.2% on average. Margins reached as low as $0.69/gallon, nearing uneconomic returns for most producers, before recovering to $0.9/gallon by the close of the week.
To recap: The week ended June 30 saw RD margins fall for a sixth straight week on feedstock strength and diesel weakness. BFT margins bucked the trend amid lower prices, likely the result of recent import activity. D4 RINs rose amid the weakest biodiesel margins in seven months. SBO rallied sharply on June 30 amid lower acreage forecasts as drought conditions ravaged the US crop.
The week ended July 7 saw RD margins recover some lost ground, firming for the first time in six consecutive weeks as RIN gains and diesel strength offset stronger feedstocks. The exception was SBO which rallied early in the short holiday week. D4 RINs rose in response to the weakest biodiesel margins in over 14 months and record-low returns for RD producers running SBO. DCO margins posted the largest week-over-week returns.
Biodiesel margins, as measured by the soybean oil-to-heating oil (BOHO), fell to the weakest level in over 14 months at $2.65/gallon.
D4 values rose in response to a deteriorating margin environment as the SBO rallied entered its second week. The BOHO spread stood $1.08 over 2023 D4 RIN values, indicating further dislocation between the D4 market and biodiesel margins (see below).
The wider the BOHO spread, the weaker the margin as the main input cost for biodiesel producers, soybean oil, is more costly than the petroleum-based diesel fuel it competes with, compressing margin though the D4 RIN can contribute significantly toward making up for BOHO weakness.
The BOHO spread is a simplistic breakdown of the pulse of the biodiesel industry and is in widespread use by the industry. The BOHO spread does not account for operational costs which can vary drastically from plant to plant, nor the additional margin value afforded by credits and/or the sale of byproducts such as glycerin.
Current year vintage D4 RINs rebounded $0.11/RIN, or 7.2%, on average last week. The market started the week as high as $1.575/RIN as RINs reacted to the widest BOHO spread in fourteen months and ended the week at $1.545/RIN.
D4 RINs lost ground following the release of the EPA’s ‘Set Rule’ which fell short of RD production capacity leaving the D4 RIN market oversupplied.
The historic ruling set the demand curve for renewable fuel use during crucial expansion years for the rapidly growing renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry well short of current and future production, dealing a blow to RD, SAF and BD industries.
The ‘Set Rule’ greatly underestimated the impact of surging renewable diesel growth, with the decision driven primarily by concerns over feedstock supply. In a glimmer of hope for the renewable diesel industry, the EPA left the door open for adjustments to the final ruling by taking into consideration a wide-ranging list of indicators.
The issue of SREs still overhangs the market, yet it is unlikely any will be approved under the Biden administration.
In February, United Refining was denied its SRE hardship waiver by the Third Circuit court, a move which would lead to additional demand to the marketplace. Trade organization Growth Energy entered comments in support of enforcing SREs in its case against the EPA. A full denial of all SREs would represent more than 1.6 billion RINs.
Prior to this, the approval by a federal court of a SRE for Calumet Special Products 30,000 b/d refinery in Montana provided bearish undertones to RIN markets.
SREs were carved out in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for refiners producing 75,000 b/d or less which could prove compliance with the RFS—i.e., purchasing RINs—resulted “undue economic hardship.”
The EPA retroactively overturned 69 Trump-Era SREs starting in April of last year by denying 31 SRE waivers for 2018 and then denying all SRE petitions for 2016 through 2020. Denying SREs is bullish for RINs markets as refiners must enter the marketplace to purchase RINs to cover compliance obligations which were originally waived.
A court ruling earlier this month halted compliance obligations for two refineries with existing SRE petitions taking issue with the retroactive nature of the SRE denial.
If approved the SRE ruling will prove very bearish for the wider RIN marketplace as participants will view the decision as a shift in the EPA’s approach to granting SREs. Notes from the court were strongly in favor of granting the SREs, as the court made it clear it intends to handle SREs as originally intended by the RFS—i.e., waive RFS compliance if undue hardship can be demonstrated—and to allow waivers which were issued in an “unlawful retroactive application.”
The California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit market sank for a third consecutive week. Prompt credits shed $2.57/t, or 3.3%, to average $73.83/t, last week holding at the lowest levels since early April. The prompt market had been in a choppy holding pattern since early May before entering a downward trend in early June. Losses were less pronounced down the forward curve.
LCFS strength had been driven by trader buying and strength in futures markets as the credits become more attractive options ahead of the California Air Resource Board’s new, more stringent scoping plan.
The forward structure returned to contango after flattening the week prior with the most prominent carry heading into the first quarter of 2024.
The California’s Air Resource Board’s (CARB) last workshop discussed an “auto-acceleration mechanism” as unused LCFS credits rose to record highs. During the workshop California regulators indicated that the final scoping plan may not take effect at the start of the new year much to the disappointment of stakeholders. The regulatory body indicated that the acceleration mechanism would likely not take effect until 2H 2025.
LCFS prices add to margin value for product intended for California, which sets the clearing price for RD fuel in the US and Canada as California RD represents the maximum achievable price for the fuel. California consumes roughly +70% of RD produced in the US for this reason, while additional barrels are sent to Oregon which also has a LCFS program in place. Washington state credits have begun trading, with back-half 2024 WCFS credits valued around $105/t.
Renewable diesel and biodiesel margins reflect a complex interplay between conventional fuels, renewable feedstocks, logistics, environmental credits, and regulatory momentum. With at least 1.8 billion gallons of additional RD capacity slated to come online this year, the need for protection from margin erosion is paramount.
Hedging provides this insurance.
At the same time, established facilities conducting turnaround maintenance can benefit from locking in margins and feedstock costs. Less sophisticated facilities—for example, producers equipped to run only one or two high-cost feedstocks and lacking prime market access—stand to benefit most from AEGIS hedging and advisory functions by achieving the best price possible for their product alongside feedstock optimization strategies.
Renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel markets remain in revolutionary growth mode. The US Energy Information Agency projected RD capacity could more than double through 2025.
While returns narrow RD and SAF remain the highest returning products in the renewable space, rapid growth and regulatory changes will drive perpetual volatility.
AEGIS is here to help harness volatility to lock in predictable gains and prevent losses through innovative hedging strategies.
Important Disclosure: Indicative prices are provided for information purposes only and do not represent a commitment from AEGIS Hedging Solutions LLC ("Aegis") to assist any client to transact at those prices, or at any price, in the future. Aegis makes no guarantee of the accuracy or completeness of such information. Aegis and/or its trading principals do not offer a trading program to clients, nor do they propose guiding or directing a commodity interest account for any client based on any such trading program. Certain information in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "edge," "advantage," "opportunity," "believe," or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance or activities.